NORTHERN Ireland’s population is expected to reach its highest point in 2033, hitting nearly 1.95 million, before it starts to gradually decline, according to a recent report by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).
The study emphasises a low birth rate as the main contributing factor.
The projections show that by 2031, the number of deaths will surpass births, marking a demographic shift that is only going to continue.
Any future population growth is likely to rely entirely on migration, which is becoming a particularly thorny issue across the whole of Europe.
However, the report assumes migration will continue at its current pace, resulting in an overall population increase of only 1.1% between 2022 and 2047, which is significantly lower than growth rates seen elsewhere in mainland Britain.
Another worrying detail in the report is the rapid ageing of Northern Ireland’s population. By the middle of 2027, pensioners are projected to outnumber children for the first time.
The working-age population, which includes those between 16 and 64 years old, is projected to begin shrinking by 2028.
By 2047, more than a quarter of the population will be aged 65 or older, compared with about one in six today.
Northern Ireland is predicted to have the largest drop in its child population and the largest increase in pensioners compared to Britain.
These projections are based on current trends and assumptions. Changes in government policies, specifically on migration, could alter future demographic changes.
Ireland’s population has long been shaped by the migration of its people. Historical upheavals such as the Great Famine in the mid-1800s, led to mass starvation and the emigration of millions.
Ulster was particularly affected. Between 1845-1851 the population fell by 340,000, a nearly 16% drop, with the worst losses in the counties of Cavan, Fermanagh and Monaghan.
Since then, Ireland has seen changes in population both within and outside its borders but still hasn’t returned to its pre-Famine peak of 8.5 million in 1845.